Friday, July 14, 2017

Pattern Change Next Week Will Bring Heat Relief to Northern Plains, Rockies and Heat Will Build in the East

Linda Lam
Published: July 14,2017

If you have been wishing for a change in the weather pattern, you may be in luck next week.
Early to mid-week, the jet stream will become more zonal and less amplified across the northern tier of the U.S., meaning more of a west-to-east track, and the subtropical ridge of high pressure will shift eastward.
This upper-level shift in the pattern will bring weather changes to much of the U.S., at least for part of next week. Below, we take a closer look at what changes to expect.

Some Relief From Heat and Drought

The northern Rockies and northern Plains have been baking in intense heat for much of July. This has helped to worsen the drought in portions of the Dakotas and Montana, which developed quickly in late May.
(MORE: Heat Wave Has Intensified Nation's Worst Drought)
The good news is that this pattern change will finally bring some relief to the extended period of hot and dry weather.

Five Day Forecast
 Instead of high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average, highs will be closer to average for mid-July. This means, for many areas, temperatures will still be hot. Highs near the 100-degree mark will be replaced with temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s in many locations.
Precipitation chances will also increase with several disturbances expected to move through the region. Dew points will also likely rise next week in much of the Dakotas and eastern Montana. This will also help increase the chance for some rainfall.
Although a widespread, heavy rain is not expected, this pattern shift is a small step in the right direction for the region.

Heat Shifts Into Midwest, East

Meanwhile, areas from the Midwest to the East will see rising temperatures next week. This change will take place as the upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, that has dominated the East for the last few weeks lifts out of the region.
This shift in the jet stream will allow above-average temperatures to slide into parts of the Midwest and East, making it feel more like mid-summer.

Midweek Forecast
Early next week, highs up to 15 degrees warmer than average will spread into areas of the Midwest and Great Lakes. Temperatures will climb into the 90s in Minneapolis and Chicago early next week, while St. Louis is expected to see temperatures around the century mark midweek.
(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast)
By midweek, highs will be above average from the mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Washington D.C. is expected to see highs in the mid 90s mid- to late next week, while highs will be close to 90 from New York City to Boston. This will be a noticeable change from the 60s and 70s expected to end this week in parts of New York and New England.
Low temperatures will also be warmer than average with temperatures only dipping into the 70s for much of the Midwest and Northeast.
The hotter-than-average temperatures will not last long, however, as a cold front will bring an end to the heat in the Midwest and Northeast by late week.

Break From Rain, Storms in Parts of Southeast, Midwest

In the Southeast, the ridge of high pressure will bring slightly hotter temperatures and a decrease in the chance for showers and thunderstorms by midweek.
This break from the wet weather will be welcomed across much of the region. Many areas of the South have seen a wetter-than-average summer so far. Birmingham, Alabama, has seen its second wettest summer through July 12, with over 14.5 inches of rainfall since June 1.
Showers and thunderstorms may still develop midweek, especially toward the Gulf Coast, but the coverage of wet weather will not be as widespread.
(MORE: Why Pop-Up Summer Thunderstorms Are Among the Hardest Weather to Predict)

Midweek Forecast
The decrease in rainfall and cloud cover, however, will also allow temperatures to climb into the 90s, and dew points will likely remain in the muggy 70s for most areas, as well.
Rain chances are expected to increase slightly, once again, late next week or next weekend for much of the region.
This pattern will also bring a break from the heavy rainfall next week in the Midwest.
A couple of disturbances are expected to track through the region, but these systems will not be as sluggish as this past week. This will result in less rainfall and allow much of the region to dry out some.

Moisture Increases in the Southwest

Meanwhile, as the upper-level ridge shifts east bringing drier conditions to the Southeast, this shift will allow moisture to increase across the Southwest.
Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of California will stream northward by early next week.

Southwest Forecast
The result will be more widespread showers and thunderstorms across New Mexico, Arizona, southern Utah and much of Colorado. Through Wednesday, many areas in eastern Arizona, northern New Mexico and southern Colorado may receive more than an inch of rainfall.
(MAPS: Weekly Planner)
In addition, high temperatures will also be slightly cooler than average due to the increase in cloud cover and storms.
This increase in showers and thunderstorms will likely persist for much of next week.
MORE: California, Canada Wildfires July 2017 (PHOTOS)

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