Significant Severe Weather Threat May Develop in the South This Weekend as Rounds of Rain Impact the Region

Linda Lam
Published: January 17,2017
Wet conditions return to the South this week and a more potent system may result in a significant severe thunderstorm threat developing this weekend.
The first disturbance will bring widespread rain and thunderstorms to Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into Wednesday and will then spread east across the South toward the weekend.
Rainfall will be locally heavy and the chance of flash floods will rise through late this week, especially in areas where thunderstorms train, a term used to describe repeated rounds of rain that occur over a short period of time. Eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley are currently expected to see the highest rainfall totals through Friday.

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)
The best chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms from this first system is on Thursday from southern Louisiana into Mississippi and Arkansas and perhaps into southern Alabama if the storms progress eastward fast enough. The primary threats are damaging straight-line winds and large hail.

Thursday's Thunderstorm Forecast

(MORE: Widespread January Thaw This Week)

Bigger Severe Threat May Loom This Weekend

A strong jet stream will combine with a strong low-pressure system, a piece of Winter Storm Kori and moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to bring a greater threat of severe thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday in the South.

Setup this weekend in the South for rain and thunderstorms.

Saturday

• Rain and scattered thunderstorms will stretch from eastern Texas through Georgia, northern Florida and western South Carolina.
• Severe thunderstorms, including damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes, are possible in Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle.
• Moderate to heavy rain will also bring the threat of localized flooding across the region.
• Cities: Houston | New Orleans | Mobile, Alabama

Saturday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Sunday

• Scattered thunderstorms and rain will persist from Mississippi to the East Coast.
• The highest chance for severe thunderstorms is currently anticipated to span from southwestern Mississippi into Alabama, Georgia and northern Florida.
• Primary threats with any severe storms that develop will be damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.
• Heavy rain and flash flooding will remain concerns as well.
• Cities: Atlanta | Montgomery, Alabama | Tallahassee, Florida

Sunday's Thunderstorm Forecast

Depending on the speed of this low-pressure system, rain and thunderstorms may linger into Monday, especially in the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic.
Given the strong low-pressure system that is expected to develop, along with moderate instability and shear, at least a few severe thunderstorms are likely this weekend. However, a widespread threat of severe weather is possible, but uncertainty remains with regards to location and timing of the greatest chance for dangerous storms.

Rainfall Forecast

Multiple disturbances are expected to impact the South into early next week with rounds of rain, resulting in a wet forecast for much of the region.

Five Day Forecast

Much of the South will receive 1 to 3 inches of rainfall by early next week. Some areas in the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and toward the Florida Panhandle will see 3 to 5 inches of rain during this time period.

Rainfall Forecast

Although flooding will be a concern for some areas, steady rainfall will be beneficial to areas still in a drought.
(MAPS: Precipitation Forecast)
The good news is that drought conditions have improved since the fall, but significant rain is still needed in some locations. Portions of northern Georgia and Alabama remain in the second-highest drought category, extreme, as of Jan. 10.

Latest drought conditions as of Jan. 10, 2017.
(U.S. Drought Monitor)

Only 11 percent of Georgia is not experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions and 66 percent of Alabama remains in drought, according to the latest drought monitor.
The expected rainfall over the next week will help continue the trend of improving drought conditions across the region, but will not end it in areas hit hardest.

MORE: Severe Weather in the South