By Alex Sosnowski, AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist
November 23,2016; 6:47PM,EST
While the storm intensity has diminished a bit across the United States during Thanksgiving week, several potent storm systems are forecast during the end of November and into the first part of December.
"Five or six major storms will affect the nation into the second week of December," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
The jet stream, which is a high-speed river of air that occurs around the altitudes that planes fly, will amplify. The jet stream will transform from its west-to-east setup this week to a very convoluted setup next week.
As this happens, storms will increase in intensity after moving inland from the Pacific Ocean, much like that which occurred for a brief time in mid-November. However, this time more than one potent storm will evolve.
On average, the area from the coastal Northwest to the northern and central Rockies can expect a storm with rain and mountain snow of varying intensity every other day.
"Of these half-dozen or so storms, two or three will bring drenching rain to the Southeastern and Northeastern states," Pastelok said.
The storms will gradually ease the threat of new wildfires igniting and may help to extinguish existing wildfires in the Southeast.
Most of these storms will bring the potential for an inch of rain at the local level, not only in the South, but also in the Northeast. Both areas are experiencing abnormally dry to exceptional drought conditions.
"One or two of the storms could strengthen quickly enough and grab enough moisture to bring some rainfall to parts of the central and southern Plains," Pastelok said.
This portion of the Plains was sliding into abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions in recent weeks.
The storm systems will pose hazards ranging from wintry weather to severe thunderstorms.
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"We expect most of the storms to track roughly from the South Central states and toward the Great Lakes and interior Northeast over the next two to three weeks," Pastelok said.
A storm or two can also dip far enough to the south along the Pacific coast to bring cold air with rain and mountain snow to the Southwest, including parts of Southern California.
"The first storm with the potential to bring wintry travel to the passes in Southern California and along Interstate 40 in Arizona will span Saturday night, Nov. 26 to Monday morning, Nov. 28," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Henry Margusity.
Prior to hitting some of the desert areas in the Southwest, rounds of snow will occur at Donner Pass, California, along I-80, to cause travel disruptions from Friday, Nov. 25 to Saturday, Nov, 26.
While this track favors rain over snow in much of the Northeast, it can produce rounds of heavy snow or a wintry mix from parts of the northern Plains to the Upper Midwest.
Should one of the storms track farther east, snow could be pulled closer to the coast in the Northeast.
The extreme nature of the pattern could also pump enough warm and humid air up from the south to increase the chance of thunderstorms and perhaps severe weather.
The severity of the thunderstorms in the late fall and winter months is less dependent on daytime heating and more dependent on the strength of the storm system, when compared to the spring, summer and early autumn.
Floyd Michaels
I
live in N Central Nevada and do we need some moisture About as dry
here as it is in California. Will the Dec storms finally get over the
Sierras and stick together to give us some snow or rain????? Yes some
rain for NC as my family there are wheezing from all the smoke,.
1
Erica Shorr ·
stay away from long island and all will be ok.
Ballarion Stahr
Glad
to see no snows down here in the Kentuckiana area for now. I am not
looking forward to the winter. Every winter I'm ready to quit my job
and head back to Los Angeles.
Elvis Hayes ·
You shoud not ask for rain because it will be bad type of rain than good
Richard Engle ·
Just send some rain to NC to help quell these fires. I'm not looking forward to evacuating for the holidays.
Sherry S. Piason Higbee ·
I hope we get severe weather and I also hope it will make 2016-2017 the same winter as 2014-2015.
Phill Wilson
No,
you don't want severe weather out of this one. This wouldn't be an
ooh-and-aah severe weather event - it would be the
bury-your-dead-in-the-rubble-of-your-neighborhood kind. Latest model run
showing 162kt jet core with ample moisture powered by low-level jet.
I'm a storm freak and this is making MY butt pucker. Whoever gets hit by
this may regret it.
Christopher Ebie
Phill
Wilson I wonder how hard we will get hit in Michigan. Very changable
here. We went from 70 F last Friday (T-shirt weather) to snow, hail,
wind and cold (below freezing) on Saturday.
Bill Palmer ·
Works at Binghamton University
Alex,
we had (as I know you know) an almost unprecedented Lake Effect (much
enhanced) event here in Binghamton, NY. 24 inches over 3 days. Going for
100+ inches this year. What do you think?
Alex Sosnowski ·
Our long range guys have been predicting an above-average amount of lake-effect snow this year. Certainly in the realm.
Jacinta Osantowski ·
How does Central Ne Add up in all the Bad weather coming in after the end of the month in Nov, to early few weeks of Dec.
Alex Sosnowski ·
Will
be mild air pushing northward along the Atlantic coast and probably
cold air hanging on in northern New England. Could be a battle back and
forth with at least some of the storms.
JimGinny Boyle ·
Cold in the Phoenix area for the first week in Dec.
Bob Bursley ·
WE'RE FLYING OUT OF GR. MI. DEC 3RD. TO OHARA .WILL THERE BE A PROBLEM DO YOU THINK?
Barbara Hayes ·
Works at Retired
ĞoĨŃĞ Ťo ŃĔŴ ŶoŔĶ ŤĨMĔ ŚQ. ÁŔĔÁ ĎĔČ.8ŤĤ - 14 ŤĤ. ĤoŴ ÁßoÚŤ ŴĔÁŤĤĔŔ there
Patti Carver Ferguson ·
what about the st. louis area?
Brian Peterson
St Louis will continue to be covered by dirt and crime so no real change for the lou.
Evan Miller ·
Brian Peterson Savage
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