Monday, October 31, 2016

Fall Heat Wave Will Smash Records From Halloween Into the First Days of November

Chris Dolce
Published: October 31,2016

Record warmth will continue to give a summer feel into the first days of November this week, with hundreds of daily record highs and warm lows likely to be set and also some monthly record highs expected in parts of the heat-weary South and Plains states.
Numerous daily record highs were broken Sunday. Atlanta's record high of 86 degrees was the latest 86-degree day on record there, surpassing the previous date of Oct. 28, 1940.
Meridian, Mississippi, hit 90 degrees Sunday, the latest such reading on record, there, beating the previous record by a full week (Oct. 23, 1941), not to mention adding to a new yearly record of 90-degree-plus days, there.
Other daily records were tied or set Sunday in Birmingham, Alabama (87 degrees), Knoxville, Tennessee (83 degrees), New Orleans (87 degrees), Austin, Texas (88 degrees), Washington D.C.'s Dulles Airport (84 degrees), Harrisburg, Pennsylvania (81 degrees), and Atlantic City, New Jersey (80 degrees).

Current Temperatures
Some southern cities could set a new daily record high each day through much of this week.
This continues what has been a much warmer-than-average month for the vast majority of Americans east of the Rockies, including a mid-October warm spell that shattered records.
Below are details on the forecast temperatures through Wednesday, along with perspective on how warm it has been so far this month.
(MORE: U.S. Warm Records Trouncing Cold Records)

Monday's Forecast (Halloween)


Forecast Highs Compared to Average Monday
  • Highs 10 to 25 degrees above average will surge back into the Upper Midwest, while continuing to encompass much of the Plains and South.
  • 70s are possible as far north as South Dakota, Illinois and Iowa.
  • 80s will once again rule the central Plains and South.
  • A few 90s are possible in the central and southern Plains, as well as the Deep South.
  • Record highs will likely be numerous from the central Plains into the Southeast, making it the warmest Halloween on record in some locations.
  • Potential daily record highs (record to beat is shown): Atlanta (85 degrees); Little Rock, Arkansas (86 degrees); Midland, Texas (85 degrees)
(MORE: Halloween Forecast)

Tuesday's Forecast


Forecast Highs Compared to Average Tuesday
  • Highs 10 to 25 degrees above average will surge back into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Appalachians, while continuing to encompass much of the Plains and South.
  • 70s are possible as far north as Lower Michigan and western Pennsylvania.
  • 80s will once again rule the Ohio Valley, central and southern Plains and South.
  • A few 90s are possible in the Deep South.
  • Record highs will again likely be numerous from the Southeast to the Ohio Valley and in parts of the Plains, threatening some all-time November record highs in some areas.
  • Potential all-time November record highs (record to beat is shown): Amarillo, Texas (87 degrees); Cincinnati, Ohio (81 degrees); Louisville, Kentucky (84 degrees); Nashville, Tennessee (85 degrees)
(MORE: La Nina May Limit Drought Relief in the South This Winter)

Wednesday's Forecast

  • Highs more than 10 degrees above average will spread into parts of the Northeast, while also continuing in much of the Midwest and South. Portions of the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes will be more than 20 degrees above average.
  • 70s are expected in the southern Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states.
  • 80s will dominate the Southeast, though it won't be quite as warm as previous days.
  • Daily record highs will be within reach in parts of the South and Ohio Valley.

Heat Wave Recap

Thursday, Phoenix smashed their record latest-in-season 100-degree high by four days.
Other record highs were tied or set Thursday in Denver (83 degrees), Salt Lake City (78 degrees) and Tucson, Arizona (97 degrees).
Friday, October 28, record highs were shattered in Garden City, Kansas (91 degrees - old record was 83), and Dodge City, Kansas (92 degrees - old record was 85) and new records were set in Amarillo, Texas (87 degrees), Pueblo, Colorado (87 degrees) and Meridian, Mississippi (89 degrees).
Friday was the fifth daily record high this month in Meridian, and was their hottest temperature so late in the season. Previously, the latest they reached 89 degrees was October 26, 2010. This is their average high on September 8.
Daily record high temperatures were toppled in many cities on Saturday. Among them were Huntsville, Alabama (88 degrees), and Amarillo, Texas (91 degrees), which both saw their warmest temperature so late in the calendar year.
Daily record highs were also set Saturday in Asheville, North Carolina (81 degrees), Blacksburg, Virginia (79 degrees), Nashville, Tennessee (86 degrees), Tupelo, Mississippi (89 degrees), St. Louis, Missouri (86 degrees), and Phoenix, Arizona (96 degrees).

How Warm It's Been

Many locations in the central and eastern United States have already experienced a very warm October.
This includes a large number of locations that will see warmer-than-average temperatures through Halloween. The only exception is the Northeast, where it will be near or even slightly below average through Halloween.
Temperatures compared to average Oct. 1-24, 2016. Areas shaded orange and brown have seen temperatures the farthest above average overall.
(Oregon State University Prism Climate Group)
Here are a few of the cities that were seeing a top five warmest October through Saturday, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.
Record warmest October-to-date:
  • Dallas
  • El Paso, Texas
  • Huntsville, Alabama
  • Lubbock, Texas
  • Midland, Texas
  • New Orleans
  • Tucson, Arizona
Second warmest October-to-date:
  • Albuquerque, New Mexico
  • Colorado Springs
  • Houston (Hobby Airport) 
According to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information, among reporting stations with at least a 30-year period of record, there have been roughly 11 daily record highs tied or broken for every record low so far in October.
Daily and Monthly U.S. Warm, Cold Records Tied or Broken in October 2016
Through Oct. 29 (Source: NOAA/NCEI)
 Daily RecordsMonthly Records
Warm5,487150
Cold5006

MORE: America's 50 Hottest Winter Cities

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