Flash Flood Threat Targets Southern Plains Through Monday

Brian Donegan
Published: September 25,2016
The heavy rain threat has shifted south to parts of Texas and Oklahoma through Monday, giving the flooded Upper Midwest a bit of a breather. However, a few severe storms are possible in parts of the Midwest.
(NEWS: Evacuations as Iowa Flood Crest Moves Downstream)
Saturday and Saturday night, vehicles were stranded in high water in Lawton, Oklahoma, Sweetwater, Texas, and San Angelo, Texas.
Wichita Falls, Texas, picked up 5.43 inches of rain Saturday, their wettest calendar day in almost 36 years and third wettest day all-time dating to 1897, according to The Weather Channel meteorologist, Michael Palmer.
By 9 p.m. local time Sunday, Laredo, Texas, had exceeded its record rainfall for the date (2.80 inches, set in 1913) with 2.94 inches.
Flash flood watches continue in parts of southwest, west-central and south Texas, including San Angelo, Del Rio, San Antonio and Laredo.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Current Radar with Watches and Warnings

Below is our latest forecast thinking on the timing and magnitude of the heavy rain forecast and the risk for flash flooding.

Heavy Rain, Flash Flood Forecast

The biggest threat of local flooding will be in parts of Texas into Monday.
Bands or clusters of heavy rain may produce rain rates from 1 to 3 inches in an hour.
According to the National Weather Service's flash flood guidance, it will only take 1 to 3 inches of rain in three hours or less in west-central Texas to trigger more flash flooding.

Rainfall Forecast

The best chance for another 3 inches or more of rain is in west-central Texas from near Midland-Odessa to Laredo, including parts of the Hill Country west of San Antonio. This is where the threat of flash flooding is highest.
Outside of that heaviest swath of rain, locally heavy rain and local flash flooding is still possible, including parts of the Interstate 35 corridor from Dallas-Ft. Worth to Austin and San Antonio.
PHOTOS: Plains, Midwest Mid-June 2016 Severe Weather and Flooding