Monday, December 28, 2015

Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Threats in the Southeast as Major Flooding Continues From Texas to the Ohio Valley

December 28,2015
The threat of severe thunderstorms, including more tornadoes, continues Monday on the warm side of Winter Storm Goliath as it slowly pushes farther east. This past weekend, the same storm system caused deadly tornadoes and flash flooding in parts of the South and lower Midwest. For more on that story, click the link below.
(MORE: Tornadoes, Midwest Flooding Latest News)
Heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to move east from the Tennessee Valley to the Gulf Coast as of Monday afternoon The thunderstorms and heavier showers could produce damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes into evening.
NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has issued a tornado watch until 6 p.m. CST for parts of southeast Alabama, the Florida panhandle and southwest Georgia. This watch area includes Panama City, Florida, and Dothan, Alabama.
A possible tornado early Monday morning caused damage near Seminary, Mississippi. Trees and power lines were downed and a roof was blown off a house.
The potential for flooding will also continue through at least Monday in parts of the South, the middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley. Parts of those regions remain under flood watches or warnings. Water rescues have been reported in parts of southern Missouri Monday morning, including in Jasper and Howell Counties.

River Flood Warnings
Over 300 river gauges are reporting flooding, according to the National Weather Service, from Texas to Ohio and Mississippi to Virginia.
(INTERACTIVE MAP: Current Flood Alerts)
Some rivers may reach record levels or at least those not seen in decades, including a stretch of the Mississippi River. Below are links to the current point forecasts for the swollen Mississippi River from the National Weather Service. Note for locations farther downstream, flood forecasts are subject to considerable uncertainty both in magnitude and timing.
  • St. Louis: Second highest crest on record possible, exceeding the spring 1973 flood, but well below the 1993 flood.
  • Chester, Illinois: Record crest possible, exceeding 1993 flood. Levees may be overtopped.
  • Cape Girardeau, Missouri: Record crest possible late this week, exceeding 1993 flood. The river is forecast to reach 42 feet midweek at which point the National Weather Service says homes and structures in southern Cape Girardeau County could be inundated or cut off due to backwater flooding from the Diversion Channel. In addition, evacuations may be required.
  • Memphis: Crest late next week, possibly higher than 1997 and 1973 floods, but well below 2011 and 1937 floods.
  • Vicksburg, Mississippi: Crest in mid-January may exceed 1973 flood, but well below 2011 and 1927 floods.
  • Natchez, Mississippi: Crest around MLK holiday may reach 1937 flood, but well below 2011 record flood.
  • Baton Rouge, Louisiana: Crest during MLK week comparable to May 2011 flood possible.
(WUNDERGROUND BLOG: Historic Mississippi River Flood Imminent)
Other locations that either have or are forecast to set or approach record flood crests include:
  • Illinois River near Tahlequah, Oklahoma: Current record from May 10, 1950
  • Illinois River near Watts, Oklahoma: Topped previous record from April 26, 2011
  • James River at Galena, Missouri: Current record from Mar. 19, 2008
  • Shoal Creek near Joplin, Missouri: Clobbered previous record of 18.81 feet (Oct. 10, 2009) by 4.6 feet on Dec. 27
  • Sac River near Caplinger Mills, Missouri: Current record from Apr. 12, 1994 (period of record only to 1974)
  • Meramec River near Arnold, Missouri: Current record is from August 1993 flood
Also, the Red River near De Kalb, Texas is expected to go into major flood stage for the third time this year. That hadn't occurred more than once in any other year dating to at least 1908.
Below are more details on the severe weather forecast. You will also find the latest radar imagery along with watches and warnings.
Severe Weather Forecast

Monday's Thunderstorm Forecast
Monday
  • Threat areas: Scattered thunderstorms, some which will be strong to severe, will move east across southern Kentucky, Tennessee, northeast Mississippi, Alabama, west and north Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. A few severe storms may continue in parts of Georgia, northern South Carolina and North Carolina Monday night. Heavy rain will once again trigger flash flooding over portions of the South and Midwest.
  • Potential threats: Damaging winds, flash flooding and a few tornadoes.
  • Cities: Birmingham | Pensacola, Florida | Nashville
For specific tornado threat forecasts, check out the latest TOR:CON forecasts from severe weather expert, Dr. Greg Forbes.
Radar, Watches, Warnings

Latest Radar
Guide to Watches and Warnings
The radar map(s) above focus on the most likely areas for severe weather and/or flash flooding, if any. Maps update every five minutes; refresh this page for the latest image.
For radar and watch/warning information in other areas of the country, click on the links below.
(MORE: View National Interactive Radar Map | Difference Between a Watch and a Warning)

Storm Reports Last Week-Weekend

Sunday, Dec. 27:
Torrential rain triggered major flooding in parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky.
Parts of the Ozarks picked up 10 inches of rain in under 36 hours. Multiple water rescues were reported in southern Missouri and homes were flooded in the towns of Noel and Anderson, Missouri. Flooding shutdown a stretch of Interstate 49 in Carthage, Missouri and eastbound lanes of Interstate 70 in St. Peters, Missouri.
Widespread flooding was reported in Hopkins, Franklin and Red River Counties, Texas. Almost all secondary roads in Scott County, Arkansas, were closed due to flooding. Roads were also flooded and closed in central and southern Illinois, including the towns of Pana, Windsor, Tuscola and Villa Grove.
An apparent tornado touched down Sunday afternoon in Bearden, Arkansas, in eastern Ouachita County about 85 miles south-southwest of Little Rock, removing roofs from homes and smashing some storefront windows. Another tornado was sighted by law enforcement west of Hampton, Arkansas.
Incidentally, Sunday's rain pushed St. Louis to its all-time wettest year (previously 57.96 inches in 2008) and wettest December (previously 7.82 inches in 1982).
Saturday, Dec. 26:
The National Weather Service has confirmed that at least nine tornadoes struck north-central Texas late Saturday, including in the greater Dallas area.
This includes one tornado that produced EF4 damage in Garland and EF3 damage in Rowlett. This is only the third EF4 tornado in Dallas County since 1927. The tornado moved along a 13-mile path in Dallas and Rockwall Counties, killing eight people.
An EF2 tornado caused two deaths in Copeville, Texas, while another tornado killed one person in Blue Ridge, Texas.
Aside from the aforementioned tornado reports, winds gusted to 105 mph at Mid-Way Regional Airport in Midlothian, Texas. Hail to the size of half dollars (1.25 inches) was reported near Apache, Oklahoma.
Elsewhere, morning tornadoes were reported near Byars and Hubbard Hill in Texas, and an unconfirmed tornado was also reported in McClain County, Oklahoma.
Christmas Day (Friday):
An EF-0 tornado caused tree damage about three miles southwest of the Mercedes-Benz manufacturing facility in Tuscaloosa County, Alabama. Thunderstorms caused downed trees and power lines on the north side of Columbus, Mississippi.
A preliminary EF-2 tornado affected the southwest side of Birmingham, Alabama early Friday evening, where local officials reported structural damage and residents trapped in their homes. As of Friday night, the city of Birmingham reported than a two square mile radius area suffered damage from the storm.
An EF-0 tornado also has been confirmed near Pineville, Mississippi, which downed trees and damaged a chicken house Friday afternoon.
High water left numerous roads impassable in Cleveland, Tennessee. Several feet of water flooded a home and bridges were washed out in the Fairview, Alabama vicinity.
People were rescued from flash floods in several Alabama counties on Christmas Day, and mudslides were reported in parts of northwest Georgia.
Roads have been washed out in many locations across northern Alabama, which prompted the governor to issue a state of emergency for the entire state.
It was the wettest Christmas Day on record in both Birmingham and Huntsville, Alabama, as well as Knoxville and Chattanooga in Tennessee.
Thursday, Dec. 24: 
Tree damage near Culloden, Alabama may have been caused by a tornado in the morning. Further west, an isolated supercell caused a tornado in El Dorado County, California during the afternoon. Multiple videos shared over social media showed a relatively small tornado in the vicinity of Folsom Lake. Spotty, minor damage was reported from that tornado.
A flash flood emergency was issued for Gilmer County, Georgia, where river gauges were near or approaching record levels. Rescues and evacuations were reported in the county as well, according to an emergency manager report to the National Weather Service.
Recent heavy rain caused mudslides in Macon County, North Carolina, and flash flooding in other parts of northern Georgia.
Wednesday, Dec. 23:
The preliminary estimated tornado count for Dec. 23 is 25, according to severe weather expert Dr. Greg Forbes of The Weather Channel.
A supercell thunderstorm that tracked from northern Mississippi into Tennessee produced two separate tornadoes with a gap in the damage near Como, Mississippi. The first tornado produced damage up to EF3 intensity along a 63-mile path in northern Mississippi. A second tornado from the same supercell produced damage up to EF4 intensity on a 73-mile path from near Tyro, Mississippi, to Selmer, Tennessee.
Elsewhere, isolated tornadoes have been confirmed in Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, South Carolina and West Virginia. For Michigan, it was the first December tornado on record there.
Strong, destructive tornadoes are not completely unusual for the Deep South in December. In fact, some particularly damaging tornadoes have occurred in December before.
(MORE: Deadliest December Tornadoes)
About 170 reports of wind damage have been received in a swath from southeast Oklahoma, eastward across the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley, to as far north as southeastern Lower Michigan between 7 a.m EST Wednesday and 7 a.m. EST Thursday. The most significant wind-damage was in Sharp County, Arkansas, where several homes were reportedly destroyed. There have been multiple reports of large hail, mainly from eastern Arkansas into Kentucky, which have caused some damage to vehicles.
Tuesday, Dec. 22:
There were no significant severe weather reports on Tuesday, however heavy rain did cause some flash flooding in parts of South Carolina, including around the Columbia area.
Monday, Dec. 21:
The National Weather Service confirmed three EF1 tornadoes in southwest Louisiana on Monday.
There were reports of trees down near Calcasieu, Louisiana, along with power outages and one person injured in a camping trailer. South of Alexandria, Louisiana near Woodworth, winds during a thunderstorm damaged a car and trees were downed.

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(PHOTO/VIDEO GALLERIES: Severe | Storms)

PHOTOS: Severe Weather Dec. 23, 2015

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