Tropical Storm Kilo Drifting Toward Johnston Island in the Central Pacific

August 27,2015

• Kilo is showing some signs of organization after struggling from late last week into earlier this week.
• A tropical storm warning is in effect for Johnston Island and tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 36 hours.
• Kilo is not a threat to Hawaii, but the system should pass close to Johnston Island later today and Friday.
• While the intensity forecast remains a challenge, it is expected that Kilo will soon become a hurricane.

(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)

Storm Information and Satellite

Projected Path

Latest Hawaii Radar

Tropical Storm Kilo has defied model forecasts for days now, but appears to be getting its act together. It was upgraded back to tropical storm status as of 11 a.m. HST Wednesday and is expected to become a hurricane within the next 24 hours.
With apparent weak wind shear and warm water, the latest Central Pacific Hurricane Center forecast strengthens Kilo to hurricane status by Friday morning and keeps the system a hurricane into early next week. For now, it is drifting west-southwest, just to the northeast of Johnston Atoll, an unpopulated U.S. territory.
Beyond Johnston Atoll, Kilo may turn west, then west-northwest over open waters into the weekend. No other land threats are in play for Kilo.

Hawaii in the Rearview Mirror

Despite Kilo's inability to organize, the large-scale circulation near Hawaii brought enhanced moisture to the Aloha State, leading to locally heavy rainfall earlier this week.
Honolulu picked up 4.48 inches of rain from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning (local time), resulting in some road flooding and road closures on Oahu, Maui and the Big Island. Rain rates of 3-4 inches per hour were estimated by radar early Tuesday morning approaching Kauai. A flood watch continues for all the Hawaiian Islands.
Thunderstorms over the islands produced up to an estimated 10,000 cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over a 24-hour period from midday Sunday through midday Monday, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
Honolulu's 3.53 inches of rain Monday was an all-time record for any August day, topping a 2.92-inch deluge from Aug. 4, 2004, and propelled the Hawaiian capital to its wettest month of August, besting that record which had stood since 1888 (4.47 inches).
Kilo is the fourth named storm to have formed in the central Pacific basin this season and the sixth to track through the basin this year, including eastern Pacific storms Guillermo and Hilda. Loke became the record-breaking fifth storm to form this season in the central Pacific Friday, according to Eric Blake, hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.
Four to five tropical cyclones are observed in the central Pacific each year, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. CPHC says a record 11 named storms were observed in the central Pacific in 1992 and 1994.
(FORECASTS: Honolulu | Hilo | Kona Coast | Maui)
NOAA's 2015 Central Pacific hurricane season outlook cited El Nino's tendency for reduced wind shear and more storm tracks coming from the eastern Pacific as reasons to expect an active season in the central Pacific Basin.
Lowry says dating to 1950, there is a 13 percent increase in the chance of a named storm to track within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands during an El Nino year compared to a neutral year.

MORE: Hurricane Iniki, 1992