Friday, October 24, 2014

Tropical Update: Watching the Western Caribbean, Eastern Pacific, and Arabian Sea

Stu Ostro
Published: October 24,2014



 
- Arabian Sea system organizing and likely to strengthen and head toward land by early next week
- Remnants of Tropical Storm Nine fighting atmospheric conditions hostile to it, yet being pesky in western Caribbean
- System which includes remnants of Gonzalo causing flooding in southeast Europe
- Ana still on its way to become non-tropical, and combine with another system and head toward British Columbia and the U.S. Pac NW early next week
- Still looking at eventual potential development in east Pac near Mexico

WESTERN CARIBBEAN, FLORIDA

The disturbance which includes remnant low pressure from Tropical Depression Nine is peskily hanging on in the western Caribbean.
It's going to be fighting upper-level winds which are not conducive to development; however if it hangs around long enough, and coalesces a bit south of where those winds are strongest, it could have a small window within which to try to make a comeback, and NHC has introduced it into their tropical weather outlook and even nudged the percentages up a smidgen.
Meanwhile, before the northern part of the whole system finally exits, there's also a pesky non-tropical low pressure center hanging on near Florida today and swirling bands of rain onshore.
That low will accelerate away and pass not far from Bermuda this weekend.

CENTRAL PACIFIC

Tropical Storm Ana has tightened up and re-strengthened. Models differ as to whether it stays as a separate entity or gets absorbed by the system to its north, but either way an energetic and wet storm will be heading into British Columbia and the U.S. Pac NW by Monday night and Tuesday.

EASTERN PACIFIC

A relatively large difference between the 2-day and 5-day probability of development (0% vs. 60%), owing to its current lack of much going on but models consistently predicting eventual development.
Models have it lurking near the coast for many days, neither moving out to sea or quickly coming inland.

ELSEWHERE

Arabian Sea
This system, Invest 90A (A for Arabian Sea), is becoming better organized, and the India Meteorological Department (official agency for tropical cyclones in that part of the world) is giving it a high probability of becoming at least a tropical depression.
Models are consistent in predicting it to further develop and become the equivalent strength of a tropical storm and maybe hurricane/typhoon.
Model track forecasts have been erratic.  Latest runs are not toward India, and instead to Oman or Yemen by Tuesday-ish.  With the steering flow players being a little tricky, we'll watch future runs to see if there are any additional significant shifts.Landfalls in that region are not unprecedented, but not frequent, and according to a map of historical tracks, particularly uncommon in southern Oman and Yemen.
Energy-producing infrastructure info/maps:  Oman  Yemen Europe The system which includes ex-Gonzalo is now part of a massive cutoff (area of low pressure aloft cut off from the jet stream) that is producing impacts in southeast Europe including reports of flooding in Athens, Greece.  As a strong ridge of high pressure builds to the north (red on the model forecast below of pressures aloft on Monday), the system is getting blocked from moving much anytime soon. Details of the rain/snow pattern will evolve and with cutoffs typically can become erratic, but additional heavy precip is expected in and around the Balkans.

REAL-TIME UPDATES

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