WeatherFanatics: Tropical Cyclone Hellen Approaches Madagascar

Saturday, March 29, 2014

Tropical Cyclone Hellen Approaches Madagascar

March 29,2014; 6:00PM,EDT

A low pressure area centered over the Mozambique Channel has organized into Tropical Cyclone Hellen (21S) Friday afternoon, EDT, as it drifts slowly southeastward paralleling the coast of Mozambique.
Hellen started as a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms over the eastern third of Mozambique earlier this week, but recently entered an environment favorable for tropical development once it formed a low-level center of circulation and progressed over open water.
The cyclone is expected to strengthen over the Mozambique Channel as it continues slowly southeastward through the next 24-48 hours, progressing just south of the islands of Comorros and Mayotte before clipping the west coast of Madagascar late Sunday night EDT. The storm is currently expected to reach maximum strength of 80 mph, equivalent to category one hurricane strength in the Western Hemisphere, over open water early Sunday morning EDT.
The center of the storm is expected to stay over water, as a ridge of high pressure building over Madagascar forces most of the storm to stay over the Mozambique Channel. This ridge will force Hellen in a more westerly direction starting Sunday night or Monday. The interaction with land and the drier air associated with the high pressure area should act to weaken the system before it reaches the coast of Mozambique toward the middle of next week.
Even if Hellen does not make landfall, it may still bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the northwest portion of Madagascar Saturday night and Sunday that can result in flooding and mudslides, along with downed trees and power lines.
Updated by AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Alan Reppert

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