By Alex Sosnowski, Expert Senior Meteorologist
March 26,2014; 8:36PM,EDT
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will stretch from portions of Illinois, Missouri and Kansas to parts of Louisiana and Texas on Thursday. The severe weather risk has the potential to span several days.
On Thursday, the greatest risk from the storms will be heavy rain and wind gusts to 60 mph. The most likely time for violent weather in the region is during the afternoon and evening hours.
Wind from the storms can be strong enough at the local level to down trees and power lines, while downpours can blind motorists and cause flash flooding. A few of the storms can also bring large hail. While a major outbreak of severe weather is not expected, a small number of the storms with this event could produce a tornado.
At the very least, downpours from the storms will slow travel for a time along the I-20, I-30, I-40 and I-70 corridors.
Cities that have the potential for disruptions and severe weather Thursday afternoon include Kansas City, Mo.; Topeka, Kan.; Tulsa, Okla.; and Dallas. A few strong storms may also fire farther south near Houston.
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During Thursday evening, the risk of locally severe thunderstorms will reach toward St. Louis; Little Rock, Ark.; Longview, Texas; and Shreveport, La.
Rain showers may precede and occur in lieu of the thunderstorm threat on Thursday.
Ahead of the showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds will raise the brush fire potential over parts of the central and southern Plains into Wednesday night.
Severe thunderstorms are forecast to erupt on Friday. The new round of storms will overlap some areas hit on Thursday and may extend to new ground farther east. The storms on Friday will also carry the risk of a few tornadoes.
According to Severe Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The storms later on Friday and Friday night can reach portions of Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky, while potentially bringing a second round of severe weather to portions of Arkansas, Louisiana and Texas Friday afternoon."
The severe weather threat area will shift to part of the Atlantic coast on Saturday.
"Locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and eastern portions of the Carolinas to southern Georgia on Saturday," Kottlowski said.
The severe weather season has gotten off to a sluggish start this year, due to the prevalence of cold air in the Central and Eastern states. The number of tornadoes so far this year is well below the 2005-13 average. Preliminary tornado reports for the year were less than 50 as of March 25, 2014, compared to a 10-year average-to-date of approximately 150 tornadoes. However, even in a year with a low count of tornado incidents there is the potential for widespread damage in some communities and a few major outbreaks.
A storm system is forecast to track to the east over the central Plains. Warm, moist air is forecast to surge over this region on southerly winds ahead of a push of dry, cooler air.
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